PublicDisclosureAuthorizedPolicyResearchWorkingPaper10740PublicDisclosureAuthorizedTheMacroeconomicImpactofClimateShocksinUruguayPublicDisclosureAuthorizedFernandoGiulianoDanielNaviaHeatherRuberlPublicDisclosureAuthorizedMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPracticeMarch2024PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10740Abstractshocksthatcansimultaneouslyaffectaneconomy,incor-poratingexogenousmacroeconomicshocksintohistoricalUruguayisaneconomythatisvulnerabletoprecipita-climateshocksexacerbatesvolatilityandincreasespoten-tionpatterns,asevidencedduringthecountry’shistorictiallosses.Grossdomesticproductcanfallby2.3percent2022/23drought.Yet,anddespiteitsrichmacroeconomicunderacombinednegativeclimateandmacroeconomicandclimatedataenvironment,thecountrydoesnothaveashockofthetypewitnessedonceeverysixyearsonaverage,consistentmacroeconomicmodeltoaddresstheaggregateand4.1percentunderaonce-in-40-yearscombinednega-impactofclimateshocks,letalonetheexpectedadditionaltiveshock.Climatechangecompoundstheseeffectsgoingimpactfromclimatechange.Thispaperintendstofillthisforward,worseningthemagnitudeofthedownsiderisksgapbyintegratingclimateshocksintotheWorldBank’sfromdroughtsbybetween18and30percent,althoughMacro-FiscalModel,itsworkhorsestructuralmacroeco-estimatesincorporatingclimatechangearesubjecttolargenomicprojectionmodel.Buildingonexisti...
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