英国国家经济和社会研究所-英国月度GDP追踪：英国经济增长势头强劲，衰退压力再现（英）-2024.4-12页

NIESRMonthlyGDPTrackerRecessionaryPressuresRecedingintheRearviewMirrorasUKEconomyGainsMomentumHaileyLow12April2024“MonthlyGDPgrewby0.1percentinFebruary2024,withcontributionsfromallmajorsectorsexceptconstructionfollowingarevised0.3percentgrowthinJanuary.InthethreemonthstoFebruary,GDPgrowthwas0.2percent,higherthanwhatweforecastedlastmonth.Onthebackofexitingashallowrecessionin2023,thisseemstobeaturningpoint,butinabroaderperspective,theUKeconomyhasflatlinedsince2022.Increasingproductivitywillbeaconstantchallengethatrequiresstructuralchangesandlong-termspendingcommitmentstopublicinvestmentandinfrastructure."HaileyLowAssociateEconomist,NIESRMonthlyGDPTrackerApril24-2-Mainpoints•MonthlyGDPgrewby0.1percentinFebruary,followingarevised0.3percentgrowthinJanuary.Thismonthlyfigurewasmainlydrivenbyincreasingoutputinproduction,particularlymanufacturingandservices.•GDPgrewby0.2percentinthethreemonthstoFebruaryrelativetothepreviousthree-monthperiod.Thiswasgeneratedbyariseinoutputinproductionandservices.•WeforecastGDPtogrowby0.4percentinthefirstquarterof2024.OurearlyforecastforthesecondquarterofthisyearseesGDPgrowingby0.3percent.Whileexitingfromtheshallowrecessioninthesecondhalfof2023iswelcoming,theseforecastsremainbroadlyconsistentwiththelonger-termtrendoflow,butstableeconomicgrowthintheUnitedKingdom(Figure1).•Aswenotedi...