麦肯锡-2023 年全球能源展望（英）-26页

GlobalEnergyPerspective2023ExecutiveSummaryNovember2023AboutthisreportTheGlobalEnergyPerspectiveisproducedbyEnergySolutions,partMcKinsey'sGlobalEnergy&Materialspractice,inclosecollaborationwithMcKinseySustainabilityandtheAdvancedIndustriespractice.TheGlobalEnergyPerspective2023offersadetaileddemandoutlookfor68sectors,78fuels,and146geographiesacrossa1.5°pathway,aswellasfourbottom-upenergytransitionscenarioswithoutcomesranginginawarmingof1.6°Cto2.9°Cby2100.Thebottom-upscenariosexplorepotentialoutcomesrangingfrom:thecurrenttrajectory,theexistingclimatecommitments,andtheconsequencesof“fadingmomentum”resultinginadelayedtransition.Datatofuelthesescenarioscomefromavarietyofsources,includingtheIEA,IPCC,UN,OxfordEconomics,USDA,Eurostat,EIStatisticalReviewofEnergy,andEIA,amongothers.Thepurposeofdevelopingsuchabroadrangeofscenariosistoshowtheimplicationsofdifferentpathwaysasafactbasetoinformdecisionmakers.However,thesescenariosarenotexhaustiveintherealmofallpossibleoutcomes.McKinseyiscommittedtoourpositionthattheworldrequiresamajorcoursecorrectiontoreachthegoalsalignedwiththeParisAgreement,andourresearchisfocusedonhelpingmeetthosetargets.AboutEnergySolutions:EnergySolutionsisMcKinsey’sglobalmarketintelligenceandanalyticsgroup,focusedontheenergysector.Thegroupenablesorganizationstomakewell-informedstrategic,tactica...