CallofDutyIndustrialPolicyforthePost-OilEraByRedaCherif,FuadHasanov,andMadiSarsenbayevWP/24/74IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.2024MAR©2024InternationalMonetaryFundWP/24/74IMFWorkingPaperInstituteforCapacityDevelopmentDepartmentCallofDuty:IndustrialPolicyforthePost-OilEraPreparedbyRedaCherif,FuadHasanov,andMadiSarsenbayevAuthorizedfordistributionbyOussamaKanaanMarch2024IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Oil-exportingeconomiesfacetheriskofanaccelerationintheenergytransition.Arisk-basedapproachcallsforurgentpreparationforthepost-oilerabydiversifyingexportsandtransformingtheprevailinggrowthmodel.WeoutlinetheprinciplesofindustrialpolicytoachievethisobjectivebasedontheexperienceoftheAsianMiraclesandproposeasketchofthestrategyrequiredtotransformtheseprinciplesintopractice.Thekeycomponentofthestrategyistoselectsectorsalongtwodimensions—proximitytothecurrentproductionstructureorcapabilitiesseta...
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