TheU.S.BudgetandEconomicOutlookPresentationatthe2024InforumOutlookConferencePhillipL.SwagelDirectorMay2,2024Formoreinformationabouttheconference,seehttps://inforumecon.com/2024-inforum-outlook-conference/.TheseslidesreprisegraphicspresentedinCongressionalBudgetOffice,TheBudgetandEconomicOutlook:2024to2034(February2024),www.cbo.gov/publication/59710andTheLong-TermBudgetOutlook:2024to2054(March2024),www.cbo.gov/publication/59711.TotalDeficit,NetInterestOutlays,andPrimaryDeficitInCBO’sprojections,thetotalbudgetdeficit—theamountbywhichoutlaysexceedrevenues—equals6.1percentofGDPin2034.NetinterestpaymentsgrowinrelationtoGDP,reaching3.9percentofGDPin2034.Primarydeficitsincreasein2025,declineoverthenextfewyears,andthenincreaseagain.Primarydeficitsorsurplusesexcludenetoutlaysforinterest.Whenoutlaysexceedrevenues,theresultisadeficit.Inthisfigure,deficitsandsurpluseswerecalculatedbysubtractingrevenuesfromoutlays;thus,positivevaluesindicatedeficits,andnegativevaluesindicatesurpluses.ThedeficitnumbershavebeenadjustedtoexcludetheeffectsofshiftsthatoccurinthetimingofcertainpaymentswhenOctober1,thefirstdayofthefiscalyear,fallsonaweekend.GDP=grossdomesticproduct.1FederalDebtHeldbythePublicFederaldebtheldbythepublicincreaseseachyearinCBO’sprojections,swellingtoanall-timerecordof116percentofGDPin2034.Inthetwodecadesthatfoll...
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