纽约联储-大流行时代的通胀驱动因素和全球溢出效应（英）-58页

NO.1080Pandemic-EraInflationNOVEMBER2023DriversandGlobalSpilloversJuliandiGiovanniŞebnemKalemli-ÖzcanAlvaroSilvaMuhammedA.YıldırımPandemic-EraInflationDriversandGlobalSpilloversJuliandiGiovanni,ŞebnemKalemli-Özcan,AlvaroSilva,andMuhammedA.YıldırımFederalReserveBankofNewYorkStaffReports,no.1080November2023https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1080AbstractWeestimateamulti-country,multi-sectorNewKeynesianmodeltoquantifythedriversofdomesticinflationduring2020–23inseveralcountries,includingtheUnitedStates.Themodelmatchesobservedinflationtogetherwithsector-levelpricesandwages.Wefurthermeasuretherelativeimportanceofdifferenttypesofshocksoninflationacrosscountriesovertime.Thekeymechanism,theinternationaltransmissionofdemand,supplyandenergyshocksthroughgloballinkageshelpsustomatchthebehavioroftheUSD/EURexchangerate.Thequantificationexerciseyieldsfourkeyfindings.First,negativesupplyshockstofactorsofproduction,laborandintermediateinputs,initiallysparkedinflationin2020-21.Globalsupplychainsandcomplementaritiesinproductionplayedanamplificationroleinthisinitialphase.Second,positiveaggregatedemandshocks,duetostimulativepolicies,wideneddemand-supplyimbalances,amplifyinginflationfurtherduring2021-22.Third,thereallocationofconsumptionbetweengoodsandservicesectors,arelativesector-leveldemandshock,playedaroleintransmittingthese...