联合国贸易发展委员会-全球大趋势与消除贫穷的努力（英）-2024.5-31页

UNITEDNATIONSCONFERENCEONTRADEANDDEVELOPMENTWorkingpaper#07GlobalmegatrendsandthequestforMay2024povertyeradicationUNCTAD/WP/2024/2AbstractPatrickN.OsakweGlobalmegatrendssuchasincomeinequality,climateTrade,Povertyandchange,demographicshifts,technologicalprogress,andurbanisationareshapingthefutureofsocieties.Yet,theirInequalitiesBranch,ALDC,quantitativeimpactsondevelopmentareneitherwellUNCTADunderstoodnorestablished.Thispaperexaminestheindividualandcombinedeffectsoftheseglobalforcesonpatrick.osakwe@unctad.orgpoverty,usingbothcross-sectionandpanelestimationtechniquesonaglobaldatasetcoveringtheperiodfrom1995OlgaSollederto2019.Regardingthedirecteffects,itfindsthatinequality,Trade,Povertyandurbanization,andtechnologyarethemegatrendswithaInequalitiesBranch,ALDC,robustimpactonpovertyinboththelongandmediumterms.DemographicshiftsandclimatechangehavesomeimpactUNCTADonpoverty,buttheresultsdependonthesamplesandspecificationsconsidered.Furthermore,thepaperfindsthatolga.solleder@unctad.orginadditiontotheirdirecteffects,technology,urbanization,anddemographicshiftsaffectpovertythroughtheirinteractionswithincomeinequality.Amongthecontrols,percapitaincome,education,andprivatecreditaresignificantdriversinthemediumterm,whilepercapitaincomeistheonlycontrolvariablethatmattersinthelongrun.KeywordsPoverty,megatrends,inequality,techno...