IMF-央行退出策略——国内传导与国际溢出（英）-2024.3-55页

CentralBankExitStrategies:DomesticTransmissionandInternationalSpilloversChristopherErceg,MarcinKolasa,JesperLindé,HaroonMumtazandPawelZabczykWP/24/73IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.2024MAR©2024InternationalMonetaryFundWP/24/73IMFWorkingPaperMonetaryandCapitalMarketsDepartmentCentralBankExitStrategies:DomesticTransmissionandInternationalSpilloversChristopherErceg,MarcinKolasa,JesperLindé,HaroonMumtazandPawelZabczyk1AuthorizedfordistributionbyChristopherErcegMarch2024IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Westudyalternativeapproachestothewithdrawalofprolongedunconventionalmonetarystimulus(“exitstrategies”)bycentralbanksinlarge,advancedeconomies.Wefirstshowempiricallythatlarge-scaleassetpurchasesaffecttheexchangerateanddomesticandforeigntermpremiumsmorestronglythanconventionalshort-termpolicyratechangeswhennormalizingbytheeffectsondomesticGDP.Wethenbuildatwo-countryNewKeynesianmodelthatfea...