国际清算银行-人工智能对产出和通货膨胀的影响（英）-2024.4-42页

BISWorkingPapersNo1179TheimpactofartificialintelligenceonoutputandinflationbyIñakiAldasoro,SebastianDoerr,LeonardoGambacortaandDanielReesMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentApril2024JELclassification:E31,J24,O33,O40.Keywords:artificialintelligence,generativeAI,inflation,output,productivity,monetarypolicy.BISWorkingPapersarewrittenbymembersoftheMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentoftheBankforInternationalSettlements,andfromtimetotimebyothereconomists,andarepublishedbytheBank.Thepapersareonsubjectsoftopicalinterestandaretechnicalincharacter.TheviewsexpressedinthemarethoseoftheirauthorsandnotnecessarilytheviewsoftheBIS.ThispublicationisavailableontheBISwebsite(www.bis.org).©BankforInternationalSettlements2024.Allrightsreserved.Briefexcerptsmaybereproducedortranslatedprovidedthesourceisstated.ISSN1020-0959(print)ISSN1682-7678(online)TheimpactofartificialintelligenceonoutputandinflationIAldasoroSDoerrLGambacortaDReesBISBIS&CEPRBIS&CEPRBISApril11,2024AbstractThispaperstudiestheeffectsofartificialintelligence(AI)onsectoralandaggregateemployment,outputandinflationinboththeshortandlongrun.WeconstructanindexofindustryexposuretoAItocalibrateamacroeconomicmulti-sectormodel.Buildingonstudiesthatfindsignificantincreasesinworkers’outputfromAI,wemodelAIasapermanentincreaseinproductivitythatdiffersbysector.WefindthatAIsignificantlyraise...