FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeriesFederalReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.ISSN1936-2854(Print)ISSN2767-3898(Online)TaleAboutInflationTailsOlesyaV.GrishchenkoandLauraWilcox2024-028Pleasecitethispaperas:Grishchenko,OlesyaV.,andLauraWilcox(2024).“TaleAboutInflationTails,”FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries2024-028.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.028.NOTE:StaffworkingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepreliminarymaterialscirculatedtostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.TheanalysisandconclusionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchstaffortheBoardofGovernors.ReferencesinpublicationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknowledgement)shouldbeclearedwiththeauthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers.TaleaboutInflationTails∗OlesyaV.Grishchenko†LauraWilcox‡May7,2024AbstractWestudyprobabilitiesofextremeinflationeventsintheUnitedStatesandtheeuroarea.Usingastate-spacemodelthatincorporatesinformationfromalargesetofprofessionalforecasters,wegeneratethetermstructureofinflationforecastsaswellasprobabilitiesoffutureinflationforanyrangeofinflationoutcomesinclosedformatanyhorizon.SincetheonsetoftheCOVID-19pandemic,inflationexpectationsincreasedmateriallyamidheighteneduncertaintyaboutfu...
发表评论取消回复