April2024OilMarketContextOilpricesclimbwithrisinggeopoliticalriskandtighteningfundamentalsBrentcrudepriceshaverisennearly20%sincethebeginningoftheyearandhavesurpassed$90/bblforthefirsttimesinceOctober.Thepricerallyoverthelastfewmonthshasbeensupportedbyrisinggeopoliticaltensions,strongspeculativeactivity,andfallinginventories.Withthelatestharddata,globalonshoreinventoriesfellforaseventhconsecutivemonthinFebruarytotheirlowestlevelsinceatleast2016.USinventoriesarefrequentlywatchedasabellwetherfortheglobalmarketduetotherelativesizeofinventoriesandthefrequencyofdata.In1Q24,UScrudeandproductinventoriesdrewby27mbcomparedtoabuildofnearly20mboverthesameperiodlastyear.USproductstocksfellbyasubstantial56mbin1Q24–doublethedrawrateseenlastyear.ThedrawdownininventorieshasbeendrivenbysupplymanagementfromOPEC+androbustdemand.OPEC+iscurrentlywithholding~5.8mb/dfromthemarketthroughcollectiveofficialcutsandvoluntarymeasures.ThenextOPEC+meetingisscheduledforJune1st.Risinggeopoliticaltensionshavealsocontributedtohigherprices.Morethan10Russianrefinerieshavebeentargetedindroneattacksinthepastfewmonthsandindustryreportsindicatethat~14%ofRussianrefiningcapacityhasbeenpartiallyorfullyhalted.RussiahasalsoincreasedattacksonUkrainianenergyinfrastructure,includingpowerplantsandnaturalgasstoragesites.Additionally,tensionsintheMiddleEastco...
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