能源安全与绿色转型（英）-34页

`EnergySecurityandTheGreenTransitionJadenKim,AugustusJ.Panton,andGregorSchwerhoffWP/24/6IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.2024JAN©2024InternationalMonetaryFundWP/24/6IMFWorkingPaperResearchDepartmentEnergySecurityandTheGreenTransitionPreparedbyJadenKim,AugustusJ.PantonandGregorSchwerhoffAuthorizedfordistributionbyFlorenceJaumotteJanuary2024IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Thecurrentenergycrisishasraisedimportantpolicyquestionsonhowtostrengthenshort-termenergysecuritywhileremainingfirmlycommittedtothegreentransition,achallengeamplifiedbytherecentconsensusatCOP28totransitionawayfromfossilfuels.Thispaperexaminesthehistoricaldeterminantsofthesecurityofenergysupplyandanalyzesthegreentransitionimplicationsforenergysecurity.Lookingback,wefindthatthediversificationofenergytradepartners,orthelackthereof,wasthemainfactorthatunderpinnedenergysecuritydynamicswithinandacrosscountriesoverthelasttwode...