Travel,Logistics&InfrastructurePracticeHowairlinescanhandlebusiersummers—andcomparativelyquietwintersAirtravelisbecomingmoreseasonal.Whatstepscanairlinestaketoadapttothenewshapeofdemand?ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyJaapBouwer,LudwigHausmann,NinaLind,ChristopheVerstreken,andStavrosXanthopoulos,representingviewsfromMcKinsey’sTravel,Logistics&InfrastructurePractice.January2024TheshapeofpassengerdemandforairtravelisThedivergencebetweenleisureandbusinessshifting,asleisuretravel’sincreasingshareoftravelhashadasignificanteffectonthenatureofthetotaltravelmarketiscreatingmorepronouncedmonthlypassengerdemand.That’sbecausesummertrafficpeaks.Thisdemandshiftisgeneratingleisuretravelislinkedfarmorecloselytotheanewsetofcomplicationsforairlines—whichwillseasons—withspikesandlullscorrespondingwithrequirenewsolutions.theNorthernHemisphere’ssummerandwinter,respectively.(Theend-of-yearholidayseasondoesPriortothedisruptioncausedbytheCOVID-19notproduceenoughleisuretraveldemandtooffsetpandemic,leisuretravelgrewatafasterpacethanthewinterlows.)Thisevolutionintheshapeofbusinesstravelinmanycountriesandregions.demandiscreatingsharperseasonalitypatternsGlobally,from2010to2019,thecompoundannualforairlines(Exhibit2).growthrateforleisureairtripswas6.6percent,incontrasttoonly3.3percentforbusinessairtrips.Seasonalityismostpronoun...
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