论商业建筑活动的长期可变滞后（英）-2024.4-45页

FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeriesFederalReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.ISSN1936-2854(Print)ISSN2767-3898(Online)OnCommercialConstructionActivity’sLongandVariableLagsDavidGlancy,RobertJ.Kurtzman,andLaraLoewenstein2024-016Pleasecitethispaperas:Glancy,David,RobertJ.Kurtzman,andLaraLoewenstein(2024).“OnCommer-cialConstructionActivity’sLongandVariableLags,”FinanceandEconomicsDiscus-sionSeries2024-016.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.016.NOTE:StaffworkingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepreliminarymaterialscirculatedtostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.TheanalysisandconclusionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchstaffortheBoardofGovernors.ReferencesinpublicationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknowledgement)shouldbeclearedwiththeauthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers.OnCommercialConstructionActivity’sLongandVariableLags∗DavidGlancy†1,RobertKurtzman‡1,andLaraLoewenstein§21FederalReserveBoard2FederalReserveBankofClevelandMarch27,2024AbstractWeusemicrodataonthephasesofcommercialconstructionprojectstodocumentthreefactsregardingtime-to-planlags:(1)plantimesarelong—about1.5yearsonaverage—andhighlyvariable,(2)roughlyone-thirdofprojectsareabandonedinplanni...