November2023ChinaBriefChinaConsumption:StartofaNewEraDanielZipser,Leader,McKinseyAsiaConsumer&RetailPracticeAfteranencouragingstartinthefirstquarterofthiswhencomparedtothealreadysubduedthirdyear,second-quarterandthird-quarterconsumptionquarterofthepandemic-impacted2022.Despiteadataconfirmswhatmanyintheindustryhavealreadypromising7.5percentuptickinretailsalesinOctober,cometoaccept:theeraofdouble-digitgrowthintherearecurrentlyfewindicationsthatChinawillseeChina’sretailsectorisover.afundamentalreversalinthistrend.(Exhibit1)Third-quarterretailsalesofgoodsgrewbyonly3percent,withtherecentDoubleElevenshoppingfestivalekingoutamere2percentincreaseoverthepreviousyear.Thisslowdownisevidentacrossvariouscategories,includingcosmetics(3percent),clothing(4percent),andappliances(0.8percent),ChinaConsumption:StartofaNewEra1EExxhhibibitit11ChinammaaccrrooeeccoonnoommicicaannddcoconnsusummptpitoinoninidnidcaictaotrosrsMacroeconomicindicatorsGrowthofkeyconsumerproductcategoriesYoYgrowthinpercent1YoYgrowthinpercent1vs.2022YTD3vs.2022YTD3Q32Q32RealGDP4.95.2%Food5.25.3%growthRetailsales3.15.5%Cosmetics3.06.8%(goods)Retailsales14.018.7%Clothing3.710.6%(foodservice)Air108.2126.7%Home0.8-0.6%passengersAppliancesAllvehicles6.7%AllvehiclesAuto3.437%EVs+28%EVs1.Volumeforautos(CATARC),valueforothercategories2.Q3growthdataiscalculatedbased...
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