美联储-政府债务、有限的远见和长期利率（英）-2024.4-14页

FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeriesFederalReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.ISSN1936-2854(Print)ISSN2767-3898(Online)GovernmentDebt,LimitedForesight,andLonger-termInterestRatesChristopherGustandArseniosSkaperdas2024-027Pleasecitethispaperas:Gust,Christopher,andArseniosSkaperdas(2024).“GovernmentDebt,LimitedForesight,andLonger-termInterestRates,”FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSe-ries2024-027.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.027.NOTE:StaffworkingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepreliminarymaterialscirculatedtostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.TheanalysisandconclusionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchstaffortheBoardofGovernors.ReferencesinpublicationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknowledgement)shouldbeclearedwiththeauthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers.GovernmentDebt,LimitedForesight,andLonger-termInterestRatesChristopherGustandArseniosSkaperdas1April23,2024AbstractWestudytherelationshipbetweengovernmentdebtandinterestratesinanenvironmentwherefinancialmarketparticipantshavelimitedforesightaboutthefuturepathofgovernmentdebt.Weshowthatlimitedforesightsubstantiallyattenuatesestimatesoftheeffectofgovernmentdebtonlonger-termyieldsrelativetothebenchmarkofratio...