2015-2040年日本家庭人口预测（英）-46页

HouseholdProjectionsforJapan2015-20401)OutlineofResultsandMethodsIntroduction“HouseholdProjectionsforJapan(OutlineofResultsandMethods)”projectedthenumberofhouseholdsnationwideandwasreleasedin2018.Theinitialpopulationusedasthebenchmarkoftheprojectionswasobtainedbyadjustingtheresultsofthe2015Census.I.FrameworkofProjections1.PeriodofProjectionsTheperiodforthepresentprojectionsisthetwenty-fiveyearsfromOctober1,2015toOctober1,2040.2.MethodandResultsofProjectionsTheessentialpartofthehouseholdprojectionswascarriedoutbythehouseholdtransitionmethod.Thismethodprojectsdistributionsbycombinationoffuturemaritalstatesandhouseholdpositions,bysettingtransitionprobabilitiesofmembersprivatehouseholds,andappliesthemtothepopulationbysexandfive-yearagegroupof“PopulationProjectionsforJapan(Publishedin2017)”2)(mediumfertility/mediummortalityvariant)inordertoprojectthepopulationbysex,five-yearagegroup,andcombinationofmaritalstateandhouseholdpositions.Householdsareidentifiedwithmarkerssuchas“one-personhouseholds,”“couple-onlyhouseholds,”“couple-and-child(ren)households,”“one-parent-and-child(ren)households,”and“otherhouseholds.”Markersrefertomembersregardedaskeypersonsintermsofhouseholdformation/dissolutioninprojectionmodelsandusuallymatchwiththehouseholdheadsoftheCensus.Forexceptionalcasessuchasawifeorachildbecomingthe...