MorganStanleyResearchGlobalMarch4,202410:35AMGMTMorganStanleyGlobalMacroForumImmigrationandLaborSupply–ImplicationsfortheEconomyandMarketsMarch4,2024SerenaTang–GlobalHeadofCross-AssetStrategyStrategistEllenZentner–ChiefUSEconomistGuneetDhingra–HeadofUSRatesStrategyStrategistMichaelWilson–ChiefInvestmentOfficerandChiefUSEquityStrategistEquityStrategistMORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCJensEisenschmidt–ChiefEuropeanEconomistMorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniesMORGANSTANLEYEUROPES.E.coveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.EllenZentnerChiefUSEconomistImmigration,LaborSupply,andPotentialGrowthInnewpopulationestimatesfromtheCBOandCensus,immigrationdrivesfasterpopulationgrowthandlaborsupply.Normalizationinthesupplysideoftheeconomyin2023contributedtorapidgrowthamidslowinginflation.WillthisGoldilocksbackdropcontinue?Source:CBO,CensusBureau,MorganStanleyResearch3PayrollsHaveBeenSurprisinglyStrongandReacceleratedintheLastSeveralMonthsThenewpopulationprojectionsimplythatbreakevenemploymentgrowthmayhavebee...
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