Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary February 23-106677419

MFebruary23,202411:43PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+44207425-9781February23StrategistMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-4703USTcurvesquietlyflattentolocallows;ECB'sLagardetalks+1212761-27794Q23wagedata;Semi-coreandperipheryleadEuropeanMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++44207425-1877durationrally;USDendsmixed;THBlagsonlargeThailandtrade+8522239-7983deficit;COPweaknesscomeswithsteadydowntrendincrudeDominicJKrummenacheroil;DXYat103.96(+0.0%);US10yat4.248%(-7.3bp).Strategist•Apronouncedbull-flatteningoftheUSTcurvestandsoutamidstaDominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.comquietNYsessionasthe2s10s,2s30s,and5s30scurvesallflattentotheirlowestlevelssinceDecember.MorganStanley&Co.LLC•ECBPresidentLagardecharacterizes4Q23euroareanegotiatedEliPCarterwagedataas"obviouslyencouraging"andstressestheECB'sindependenceinitssequencingofpolicydecisions.StrategistEli.Carter@morganstanley.com•Europeandurationreversesricher,ledbysemi-coreandtheperiphery;the10yBTP-Bundspreadtightens~4bp,to144bp,anewLenoyDujonlocallow.US/CanadaEconomist•USDendsmixedagainstG10peers,amicrocosmofrecentLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.comunevennessinDXYUSDIndexpriceaction.MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+•THB(-0.8%)underperformregionalpeers,weigheddownbyalargeThailandtradedeficit.Marie-AnaisCFrancois...