Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Insights Day 2024 Asia Economics Is India the New C...-105733996

MJanuary4,202408:24AMGMTUpdateGlobalInsightsDay2024AsiaPacificMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+8522239-7812AsiaEconomics:IsIndiatheNewChina?ChetanAhyaChiefAsiaEconomistChetan.Ahya@morganstanley.comMorganStanleyappreciatesyoursupportinthe2024InstitutionalInvestorAll-AsiaResearchTeamSurvey.VotingwillopenearlyJanuary2024.Forimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.MUpdateChetanAhyaChiefAsiaEconomist2MUpdateAsia’sgrowthoutlook:StillonapathofasynchronousrecoveryChina:Asub-pargrowthrecoveryin2024India:Sustainingrobustdomesticdemand7ChinarealGDPgrowth(%Y)8IndiarealGDPgrowth(%Y)6.82022-23avg6.07666.45.32024E54.254.62024E44.04332121.5102020-21avg2022-23avg02020-21avg20192019Source:CEIC,Haver,MorganStanleyResearchforecastsMorganStanleyResearch3MUpdateChina–Theeconomyfacesrenewedheadwindsfromthe3Dchallengeofdebt,demographicsanddeflationInvestmenttoGDPratioshavebeenkepthigherthanExcessinvestmenthasledtoleveragingupinpropertywarrantedgivenweakeningdemographicsdevelopersandlocalgovernmentbalancesheetsChinaGFCF%ofGDPC350ChinaDebttoGDPRatio,%Populationgrowth(%Y,RS)50%1.6%312302308300Household29328129145%Non-financialCorporates2702712642691.2%250898995101107111250Government23140%40.9%21965677075205610.8%194193200601815435%4915552490.4%1505030%37158151139135139127132137137136-0.01%1480.0%100115115...