Morgan Stanley Fixed-US Economics Global Macro Strategy FOMC Preview Annual H...-106136168

MJanuary25,202405:01AMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCIdeaUSEconomics&GlobalMacroStrategyNorthEllenZentner+1212296-4882America+1212761-1445ChiefUSEconomist+1212761-2647FOMCPreview:AnnualEllen.Zentner@morganstanley.com+1212761-4630Housekeeping+1212761-5287GuneetDhingra,CFA+1212761-1837Weexpectlittlechangetothestatementandnosignalofan+1212761-8573imminentcut.TherotationofvoterstiltsabitlessfavorableforStrategist+1212761-0857anearlycut.DiscussionwillcenteroninflationandtheratesGuneet.Dhingra@morganstanley.compathahead,andthebalancesheet.OurstrategistsstaylongUST+8136836-54665y.JayBacow+1212761-6051KeyexpectationsStrategist+1212761-6076Jay.Bacow@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779•TheFOMCremainsonholdat5.375%.Wecontinuetoexpect100bp+1212761-0407ofcutsthisyear,beginninginJune.TheFedcutsbyanadditionalSamDCoffin200bpin2025,returningpolicytoaneutralsetting.Economist•WeexpectlittlechangeintheFOMCstatementastheFedawaitsSam.Coffin@morganstanley.comdirectionfromimportantrevisionstoemploymentandinflationinearlyFebruary.AndrewMWatrous•IntheQ&A,ChairPowellacknowledgesdiscussionoftheFed'sStrategistbalancesheetandsoundspleasedevenwhilecautiousoninflationAndrew.Watrous@morganstanley.comprogressasrevisionsloom.Heislikelytorepeatthatrateswillbelowerthisyear,butavoidcommittingtoanyparticularmeeting.MatthewHornbach•Ourratesstrategistsstaybi...