JPMorgan Econ FI-Economic Activity Tracking-107059306

JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735MaiaGCrook(1-212)622-8435GlobalEconomicResearchJPMORGANjoseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.commaia.crook@jpmorgan.com15March2024JPMorganChaseBankNABennettParrish(1-212)622-9003bennett.parrish@jpmchase.comEconomicActivityTrackingFigure2:GDPnowcaster:riskbiasfor1Q24vsdatasurprisesDatasurprise(+stronger,-weaker):30-daychginNRIarg(15.2,5.2)tur(7.8,4.2)Seehereforareal-timesnapshotandmethodologyreports.1.2chl(1.2,3.4)colsgp•Ourforecastfor1Q24globalrealGDPgrowthwas0.8twnrusunchangedthisweekat2.6%ar(Figure1).Thetop-down0.4rouzafgbrglobalnowcastermovedsidewaysat1.9%ar,suggesting0.7%-ptofdownsiderisktoglobalgrowth(Table2).0.0globpolchnusakor•Nearlytwo-thirdsoftheeconomieswetrackhaveseen-0.4hunemudatasurprisestrongeroverthepast30days.Thenowcast-percanerimpliesupsideriskto1Qgrowthinjustunderhalfof-0.8theseeconomies(Figure2).-1.2mex(-5.6,-0.1),jpn(-3.7,-3.5)•OurCapexNowmodelestimatefor1Q24globalcapex-3-2-1012345growthdroppedto1.4%arthisweek(Table4).Source:JPMGlobalEconomicsRiskbias(+upside,-downside):Nowcastlessfcst•Thisweek’skeyreleasesincludedUSFebruaryIPandTable2:RealGDPretailsales,bothofwhichfellabitshortofexpectations,%q/q,saar.UnderlineindicatesJ.P.Morganforecast.andweakEuroareaJanuaryIP.USFebruaryCPIcameinonthefirmside.Wealsoupdatedourtrackerofglobal4Q231Q24autosales,whichtickedup0.1%inFebruary...