Morgan Stanley Fixed-China Economics Macro Webcast New Year Resolution Reflati...-105929668

MJanuary14,202408:35PMGMTUpdateChinaEconomicsAsiaPacificMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+8522848-6511+8523963-4015MacroWebcast:NewYearResolution:Reflation,RobinXingNotAusterityChiefChinaEconomistRelatedreports:Robin.Xing@morganstanley.comChinaMusings:NewYearResolution:Reflation,NotAusterityChinaEconomics:LongestandDeepestDeflationSince1998JennyZheng,CFAEconomistJenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.comMorganStanleyappreciatesyoursupportinthe2024InstitutionalInvestorAll-AsiaResearchTeamSurvey.Requestyourballothere.Forimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.MUpdate2MUpdateSomeStabilizationinTradeImprovedimportsledbycommoditiesandtechprocessingtradeLabor-intensiveconsumergoodsexportsfurtherstabilizedExportsofLabor-intensiveConsumerGoods,seasonallyadjusted,US$mnSeasonallyAdjusted,Jan-2017=10045,000Reversalofpost-Tech-relatedImportsImportsofInfrastructure-relatedCommodities-RS40,000Covidmarket19012035,000sharegainhas18011530,000beenlargely17011025,000completed16010520,00015010015,0001409510,0001309012085110100902005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Source:ChinaCustoms,MorganStanleyResearch1MorganStanleyResearch3MUpdateButDomesticDemandRemainsWeakLongestanddeepestdeflationsince1998S...