JPMorgan Econ FI-Singapore November core CPI moderates IP unexpectedly contr...-105586063

JPMORGANAsiaPacificEconomicResearch26December2023Singapore:NovembercoreCPImoderatesIPunexpectedlycontractsbutunderlyingtrendstillhealthyCoreCPImoderatesinNovember;trendeasingstillintact-Singapore’sEmergingMarketsAsia,EconomicNovembercoreCPI(whichexcludesprivateroadtransportandaccommodation)andPolicyResearchrose0.2%m/m,saandwasup3.2%oya,inlinewithexpectations(J.P.Morgan:3.1%oyaandconsensus:3.2%oya).Intrendsequentialterms,coreCPIroseSudhanshuAgarwal2.9%3m/3m,saar.Headlineinflationrose3.6%oyaandfell0.6%m/m,sa(Figure1).sudhanshu.agarwal@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedInthedetails,goodsinflationhaspickedupslightlywhileservicesinflationcontinuestodisplaygradualsequentialeasing(Figure2).Withincoreservices,theJinTikNgai,CFAdowntrendinfoodpriceshassomewhathalted(Figure3)butgiventhelackofsupply-sidepricepressures,foodpricesshouldcontinuetostabilizegoinginto(65)680755562024.jintik.ngai@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchSinBengOng(65)6882-1623sinbeng.ong@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchNotwithstandingtheElNiñoeffectandthelaggedimpactofhigherrentalpricesaswellasthe1%ptGSThikeonJanuary1,2024,thetrendeasingincoreCPIshouldremaininplace(Figure4).IPunexpectedlycontracts;techrecoverystillonthecards-Singapore’sNovembermanufacturingproductioncameinmuchweakerthanexpected,down7.8%m/m,s...