Morgan Stanley Fixed-BoJ Watch Macro Strategy Will the BoJ Move On Yen Weaknes...-107352931

MApril2,202410:37AMGMTMorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.+IdeaBoJWatch&MacroStrategyJapanTakeshiYamaguchi+8136836-5404+8136836-5407WilltheBoJMoveOnYenChiefJapanEconomist+8136836-8428Weakness?Takeshi.Yamaguchi@morganstanleymufg.comWedonotexpecttheBoJtoimmediatelyraisethepolicyrateatMasayukiInuitheAprilMPM.Thatsaid,weseeapossibilityoftheBoJeffectivelysendingsignalsagainstaone-waybetintheFXEconomistmarketattheAprilmeeting.Masayuki.Inui@morganstanleymufg.comKeyTakeawaysKoichiSugisakiTheBoJ'sviewisthatJapan'sinflationexpectationsandtheunderlyinginflationStrategisttrendhavenotreachedthe2%targetyet.Koichi.Sugisaki@morganstanleymufg.comMeanwhile,weseeapossibilityoftheBoJeffectivelysendingsignalsagainstaone-waybetintheFXmarketattheAprilmeeting.Theypotentiallyinclude(1)emphasizinginflationupsiderisk,(2)mentioninganegativesideeffectofZIRP,and(3)apossiblereductioninJGBpurchases.Thenegative-carrycostofshortingtheshortendofthecurvecouldbecomeonerousiftheBoJshowsnosignofturninghawkishagainstJPYweakness.WeexpectupsideforUSD/JPYtobelimitedintheneartermgiventhattheMoFhasnowstartedtoexpressstrongconcernaboutexchangerate“volatility”.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyRes...