JPMorgan Econ FI-US Natural Gas SD balance update amid weatherfreeze-offs; ...-106018401

JPMORGANNorthAmericaCommoditiesResearch18January2024USNaturalGasS&Dbalanceupdateamidweather/freeze-offs;detailedbalancesincludedSincepublishingearlierthisweek,weareprovidingmoredetailedbalancesthatGlobalCommoditiesResearchnowaddressourassumptionsforfreeze-offsbyregion.Wehaveadditionallyincreasedourassumptionforfreeze-offsimpactingproductionto~3.5Bcf/dayforShikhaChaturvediACJanuary.Thisisa~2.5Bcf/dayrevisionhigherthanwhatourbalancereflectedearlierthisweek.Additionally,wehaveincorporatedinthisbalanceupdated(1-212)834-3245Januaryweatherof918HDDs,nowvirtuallyflattoour10-yearnormal.Ourend-shikha.chaturvedi@jpmorgan.comMarch2024storagetrajectoryis~1.9Tcfandourend-October2024storageJPMorganChaseBankNAtrajectoryis~3.92TcfassumingnormalweatherafterJanuary.Additionally,anotherFERCfilingrecentlyfromGoldenPassappearsthatthefacilityisseekingtocommissionitsflaresystembyFebruary17,2024.Theremaybesomeincrementalfeedgasneededforthisprocess,butifhistorywereaguidewewouldassumethatthisstillputsthefacilityonpaceforincreasedfeedgasflowsforLNGproductionby4Q24.Asareminder,ourcurrentlower-48balanceincorporatesGoldenPassfeedgasflowscommencingin4Q24.InourbalancesofSoutheastUS,(representingArkansas,Tennessee,NorthCarolina,SouthCarolina,Georgia,Florida,Alabama,Mississippi,andLouisiana)reflectsonlytheadditiontoofPlaqueminesfeedgasdemandto...