JPMORGANNorthAmericaEconomicResearch28December2023US:ThursdaymorningdatasummaryWecontinuetoseesomedownsiderisktoour2.0%realGDPgrowthforecastforEconomicResearch4Q,astheadvancetradeandinventorydataforNovemberdisappointedexpectationssomewhat.ButpersistentlylowlevelsofjoblessclaimsfilingsDanielSilver(despiteincreasesintoday’sreport)suggestcontinuedstrengthinthelabormarket.Runningthroughsomeoftheeconomicnewsfromthismorning...(1-212)622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.com•Initialclaimsincreasedfrom206,000to218,000duringtheweekendingJPMorganChaseBankNADecember23.Whilethisdisappointedexpectations,theleveloffilingscontinuestocomeinatalowlevel.Weeklyfigurescanbenoisy,especiallyduringtheholidayseason,sowedon'twanttoreadtoomuchintoanyonespecificweeklyprint.Continuingclaimsalsoroseintoday'sreport—increasingfrom1.861mnto1.875mnduringtheweekendingDecember16—butsimilarlyhavestayedatlowlevelsrecently.•Thenominalgoodsbalancewidenedfrom-$89.6bninOctoberto-$90.3bninNovember.ExportsandimportsbothfellinNovember(-3.6%and-2.1%,innominalterms,respectively)andwethinktradeflowsalsodroppedoffinvolumetermsduringthemonth.Overallitlookslikenetexportsareontracktobeamodestdragon4QGDP.•Nominalwholesaleinventoriesdeclined0.2%inNovemberwhilenominalretailinventoriesdeclined0.1%.Theinventorydatainhandsofarfor4Qlookprettysoft.Asolidbuildupofinv...
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