JPMorgan Econ FI-China FX reserves beat again Gold price onshore signals CNY...-107441531

JPMORGANAsiaPacificEconomicResearch07April2024China:FXreservesbeatagainEmergingMarketsAsia,EconomicandPolicyResearchGoldpriceonshoresignalsCNYdepreciationpressure,TingtingGebutmoredependsonPBOC’sCNYfixing(852)2800-0143China’sFXreservesdeliveredupsidesurpriseagaininMarch,risingUStingting.ge@jpmorgan.com$19.8bnto$3,245.7bn.ItcomparestoourforecastforaticklowertoUS$3,223.5bn,pointingto1)larger-than-expectedtradesurplusorcurrentaccountHaibinZhusurplus,or2)smaller-than-expectedimpliedcapitaloutflow.(852)2800-7039•Currentaccountsurpluslikelytohavestayedelevated.China’shaibin.zhu@jpmorgan.commerchandisetradeactivitiesbeatexpectationssignificantlyfromtheyear’sGraceNgstart,witha6.7%m/msajumpinexportsand1.7%riseinimports.ThemomentummayhavebeenpartlycarriedoverintoMarchthoughthepacemay(852)2800-7002havemoderated.ExportorderscomponentofbothmanufacturingPMIspickedgrace.h.ng@jpmorgan.comupinMarch,up0.8-ptto51.6forCaixinPMI,andup5.0-ptfortheNBSPMI.Ourbaselineforecastlooksforanother0.5%m/msagaininexports,alongwithJiYana1.0%riseinimports,leavingtradesurplusatasolidUS$70.0bn.However,theupsidesurpriseinMarchFXreservessuggestsitislikelytradesurplusor(852)2800-7673currentsurpluswillcomeinwiderthanexpected.Itpointstoupsidesurpriseji.yan@jpmorgan.cominexports,ordownsidebiastoimports.JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch•Anesti...