Morgan Stanley Fixed-India Economics Assessing Trends in Domestic Global High-...-107489524

MApril10,202406:34AMGMTIdeaIndiaEconomicsAsiaPacificMorganStanleyIndiaCompanyPrivateLimited+91226118-2246+91226118-3027AssessingTrendsinDomestic&UpasanaChachraGlobalHigh-frequencyPricesChiefIndiaEconomistGlobalcommoditypriceshaverisensequentiallyoverthelast3Upasana.Chachra@morganstanley.commonths.Favourablestartingpointofmacrostability,prudentpolicymix&nimblesupply-sideresponsehaveloweredBaniGambhirvulnerabilitytosuchvolatilities.Weremainwatchfuloftheevolvingglobal&domesticpricetrends.EconomistBani.Gambhir@morganstanley.comTrendinglobalcommodityprices:Globalcommoditypriceshaverisenonasequential/absolutebasisoverthelastthreemonths,therebyreducingdisinflationExhibit1:AssessingRecentTrendsinKeyforsomecategories,whilstothershavegrownpositivelyonaYoYbasis.Indeed,theDomesticandInternationalCommoditiesCRBcommodityindexhasrisensequentiallyoverthelastthreemonthsaftercontractingintheprevioussixmonths.Similarly,theCRBfoodindexhasrisenoverYoY%CY2020CY2021CY2022CY2023Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24thelastthreemonths,theCRBmetalindexoverthelasttwomonthsandBrentBrent-31.8%72.3%41.6%-15.6%-5.6%-2.1%6.9%6.9%pricesoverthelastfourmonths.Tobeclear,onaYoYbasistheCRBcommodityCRBFoodIndex-3.9%42.6%22.8%-4.0%-7.1%-3.0%-0.6%index,CRBmetalindex,andCRBfoodindexcontinuedtodeclineataslowerpace,CRBCommodity-3.1%37.3%11.5%-7.6%-10.6%-5.6%-2.6%-1....