Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary March 26-107237784

MMarch26,202409:37PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+1212761-0407March26Strategist+1212761-4703Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779USTstwistflattenamidstrong5yauction;EUR/CHFhitshigh+44207425-1877sinceJune;BoE'sMannpushesbackonmarket-impliedcuts;ZoeKStrauss+8136836-8428OATstrackcoredurationamidFrenchdeficitdata;USD/JPYnear+8523963-0303localhighs,MoFremarkscontinue;COPadvancesafterholiday;StrategistDXYat104.30(+0.1%);US10yat4.232%(-1.4bp).Zoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com•Treasuriestwistflattenafterastrong$67bn5yUSTauctioncomesEliPCarter1.0bpthrough;focusturnstolikelyearlierthanusualmonth-endactivitygivenaholiday-shortenedweekintheUS.StrategistEli.Carter@morganstanley.com•EUR/CHF(+0.4%)advancestoitshighestlevelsinceJuneasthefranc'sappealasafundingcurrencyincreases,followingthesurpriseLenoyDujonSNBratecutlastweek.US/CanadaEconomist•BoEMPCMemberMannwarnsmarketsare"toocomplacent,"inLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.comreferencetotheseriesofratecutspricedinthisyear,andsaysmarketsare"pricingintoomanycuts."MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+•Despiteoutperformanceofperipheralduration,OATsfailtorichenMarie-AnaisCFrancoisagainstcoreafterInseereportsahigher-than-expectedFrenchpublicdeficitin2023.StrategistMarie-Anais.Francois@morganstanley.com•USD/JPY(+0.1%)cautiousl...