Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary February 5-106359024

MFebruary6,202412:53AMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+44207425-9781February5StrategistMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-4703PowellreiteratesMarchcut"notlikely";USTlossesextendamid+1212761-2779ISMServicesrebound;USDgainspersistwithfewerimpliedFedMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++44207425-1877cuts;ChinaA-sharesmallcapsdrawdowndeepens;Spain+8136836-8428outperformspeersbeforesyndication;CLPbreaks950againstDominicJKrummenacher+8523963-0303USD;DXYat104.46(+0.5%);US10yat4.158%(+13.8bp).Strategist•FedChairPowellreiteratesitis“notlikelythatthiscommitteewillDominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.comreachthatlevelofconfidenceintimefortheMarchmeeting”tobeginratecuts.Giveneconomicgrowthata“solidpace,”a"strong"laborMorganStanley&Co.LLCmarket,andcontinueddeclinesininflation,hesaidtheFedcan“reduceinterestratescarefully.”EliPCarter•USTsopenweakeralongsidePowell'sremarks.LossesdeepenwithStrategistunderperformanceinthebellyafterareboundinISMServicesEli.Carter@morganstanley.comemployment,andaspricespaidsurgesonhighershippingcosts.LenoyDujon•USdollarstrengthcontinueswiththefurtherriseinUSTyields,fewerimpliedratecuts,andmoredatawhichdonotsuggestanUS/CanadaEconomist"unexpectedweakening"inthelabormarket.Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com•DrawdowninChinaA-sharesmall-capsd...