JPMORGANAsiaPacificEconomicResearch12May2024ChinaWhat'sbehindthedisappearanceofcreditinApril?•Aprilcreditreportcameinasabigdisappointment.TSFcontracted199billionEmergingMarketsAsia,EconomicandPolicyResearchyuaninApril,thefirstnegativemonthlyTSFflowdatapointsincethecentralHaibinZhubankbegantoreleaseTSFdatain2011.TSFgrowthregisteredanewrecordlowat8.3%oyainApril(vs.8.7%inMarch)whileloangrowthstayed(852)2800-7039unchangedat9.6%.haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com•TheslowdowninAprilcreditgrowthhasbeenratherbroad-based,ledbyGraceNgcontractioninhouseholdloans(amidlingeringweaknessinhomesalesand(852)2800-7002consumerspending).Corporateloanscameinsoft,suggestingcautiousgrace.h.ng@jpmorgan.comcorporatesentimentsoninvestmentoutlook(otherthansectorsofpolicysupport),whilecorporatebondissuancealsomoderatednotably.OnthefiscalTingtingGeside,netgovernmentbondissuanceshowedthefirstmonthlycontractionsincelate2018.(852)2800-0143tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com•Inthebroadpicture,itisconcerningthatpolicy-makersmayhavebecomeJiYansomewhatcomplacentonthegrowthoutlookafterthestrong1QGDPreport.ThedisappointingAprilcreditreportreinforcesimportanceofmaintaining(852)2800-7673growth-supportivemacropolicygoingahead(toavoidarepeatofthesuddenji.yan@jpmorgan.comlossofgrowthmomentumashappenedthistimelastyear).JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch•Onthemonetary...
发表评论取消回复