Morgan Stanley Fixed-China Economics Export-driven Growth Continues-108130071

MMay9,202406:24AMGMTUpdateChinaEconomicsAsiaPacificMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+8522239-7820+8522848-6511Export-drivenGrowthZhipengCai+8523963-4015Continues+8522239-7229EconomistImportsmixpointstostabledomesticdemandandongoingZhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.comrecoveryinglobaltrade.ExportgrowthbouncedoffMarchtroughandissettorisefurtherfromMay,inourview,sustainingRobinXingexport-drivengrowth.ChiefChinaEconomistKeyTakeawaysRobin.Xing@morganstanley.comExportswerestableinApril,withYoYgrowthonparwith1Q(both1.5%Y),JennyZheng,CFAthankstoresilientexternaldemand.EconomistAutoandshipexportsremainedstrong,whileconsumerelectronicspickedup.InJenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.comcontrast,labor-intensiveconsumergoodsslowedafterimprovingin4Q23-1Q24.HarryZhaoExportYoYgrowthshouldrisemeaningfullyinMay-Julyto7-9%amidlowerbase.EconomistNominalimportgrowthsurprisedontheupside,ledby:(1)integratedcircuitamidHarry.Zhao@morganstanley.comglobaltechcycle,and(2)higherimportpricesforcoal,oil,andcopper.Exhibit1:ExportYoYgrowthshouldjumpWethinkimportsdatasuggeststhatdomesticdemandinAprilwasstable,asthefromMayamidlowerbaseheadlinegrowthwaspartlydrivenbytechprocessingtrade.USDbnChinaMonthlyExportValue,SeasonallyAdjustedAprilexportsstillstable,withdivergingmix:Nominalexportgrowthreboundedas350expectedto1.5%Y(consensus:1.3%)from-7.5%inMarch.Whileseasonallyadj...