Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary March 1-106806398

MMarch2,202401:02AMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+44207425-9781March1StrategistMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-4703USTsbull-steepenafterISMPMIdrop;Fed'sWallertalksUST+1212761-2779holdingscomposition,2yswapspreadswiden;JPYretreatsafterMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++44207425-1877Uedacomments;US-EUratedifferentialstighten,EUR/USD+8136836-8428rises;NOKexhibitsbroadstrength;COPlags,despiteoilrally;DominicJKrummenacher+8523963-0303DXYat103.89(-0.3%);US10yat4.180%(-7.0bp).Strategist•USTreasuriesbull-steepenafteranunexpectedfasterpaceofDominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.comcontractioninUSmanufacturing,astheISMManufacturingPMIfallsto47.8(P:49.1);marketsincreaseoddsforJuneratecut.MorganStanley&Co.LLC•2yUSTswapspreadswiden~2bp,afterFedGovernorWallerEliPCarteradvocatesfora"shiftinTreasuryholdingstowardalargershareofshorter-datedTreasurysecurities."StrategistEli.Carter@morganstanley.com•JPYretracesgainsfromthepriorsessionafterBoJGovernorUedasayshedoesnotbelievethe2%pricetargetisinsight,adifferentLenoyDujonviewthanBoJBoardMemberTakata.US/CanadaEconomist•EUR/USD(+0.3%)risesamidaconsiderabletighteninginUS-Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.comEuropeaninterestratedifferentials.MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+•AresurgentNOKleadsG10gainsagainstUSD,amidsthigheroil...