Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary March 15-107059298

MMarch15,202411:58PMGMTUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMorganStanley&Co.LLC+1212761-6076+44207425-9781March15MartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-4703BearishUSTtrendpersists,curvetwistflattens;USD/JPYStrategist+1212761-2779reclaims149,despiteRengoresults;NZDlagsongloomyMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+8136836-8428economicoutlook;Bundsbear-flatten;BrazilDIsunderperform+8522239-7983peers;PBoCmaintainspolicyrates,announcesnetliquidityMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+withdrawal;DXYat103.45(+0.1%);US10yat4.306%(+1.6bp).DominicJKrummenacher•USTstwistflattenasfirmimportpricedataallowsforacontinuationofthebearishtrend;marketpricingnowimplieslessthan75bpofFedStrategistratecutsthisyear.Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com•USD/JPY(+0.5%)returnsabove149despitepreliminaryresultsofMorganStanley&Co.LLCRengospringwagenegotiations,whichwerestronger-than-expected,withaMarchBoJhikealreadyintheprice.EliPCarter•NZD(-0.8%)exhibitsthesharpestweaknessagainsttheUSdollarasStrategistNewZealandFinanceMinisterWillisclaimsofficialgrowthforecastsEli.Carter@morganstanley.comwillpaintagloomypictureoftheeconomy.LenoyDujon•Europeandurationtrendssideways,Bundsbear-flattenin-sympathywithfront-endUSTlosses.US/CanadaEconomistLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com•January2033BrazilDIssell-off13bpaftermorestrongdatafollowstheretailsalesbeatonThursday.MorganStan...