Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary March 12-107001699

MMarch12,202410:53PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+1212761-0407March12Strategist+1212761-4703Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779CPIstrengthlackstrend,OER-Rentwedgenarrows;USTssell-+44207425-1877offinparallelfashion;EUR/GBPrisesaftersoftUKwagesdata;ZoeKStrauss+8136836-8428Peripheryoutperformscoreandsemi-core;ECB'sHolzmannsays+8523963-0303JunecutmorelikelythanApril;PHPoutperformspeers;DXYatStrategist102.93(+0.1%);US10yat4.151%(+5.2bp).Zoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com•USFebruaryCPIcomesinstrong.TheOER-Rentwedgenarrows,butEliPCartertheaccelerationinrentreversesfourmonthsofprogress;3mannualizedcoreCPIrisesto4.18%(P:3.97%).StrategistEli.Carter@morganstanley.com•TreasuriesselloffafterCPI,whichneitherencouragestheFedtocutearliernorfaster;USdurationends~5bpcheaperacrossthecurveLenoyDujonafterthe$39bn10yre-openingauctiontailsby0.9bp.US/CanadaEconomist•EUR/GBP(+0.2%)risesafterUKwagegrowthcomesinsoft,ourLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.comeconomistsnotethetotalityoflabormarketsurveyscontinuestosuggestanongoingbuild-upofslack.MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+•Peripheraldurationoutperformscoreandsemi-coreEuropeanMarie-AnaisCFrancoisduration;the10yBTP-Bundspreadtightensby~5bpto128bp.Strategist•ECBGoverningCouncilMemberHolzmannbelievesratecutsareMarie-Anais.Francoi...