Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary January 12-105901702

MJanuary13,202412:27AMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+1212761-0407January12Strategist+1212761-4703Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779SoftPPIlowerscorePCEforecasts;USTstwist-steepen,front-+44207425-1877endrallypersists;lowerfront-endUSrealyieldsweighonUSD/ZoeKStrauss+8136836-8428JPY;Europeanratesbull-steepen,impliedECBcutsrise;ECB's+8522239-7983Lanetalksdata,cuts;TWDslipsbeforeTaiwanelections;DXYatStrategist102.44(+0.1%);US10yat3.939%(-2.7bp).Zoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com•SofthealthcareservicesandairfaresinPPIleadtolowerestimatesEliPCarterforDecembercorePCEinflation,areleaseinlinewithoureconomists'forecastbrings3-monthannualizedcorePCEto1.5%.StrategistEli.Carter@morganstanley.com•USTstwist-steepeninacontinuationofarallyledbythefront-end;benigninflationdataleadsSTIRmarketstopriceinalmostsevenLenoyDujon25bpFedratecutsthisyear.US/CanadaEconomist•Furtherdeclinesinfront-endUSrealyieldsweighonUSD/JPY(-Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com0.3%),whichslidesbelow145.MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+•Europeandurationbull-steepenssharplyasOISmarketsimply150bpofECBratecutsthisyear.Marie-AnaisCFrancois•ECBChiefEconomistLanesaysratecuts"willcometotheforefront"Strategistonlywhen"wehavedevelopedsufficientconfidencethatweareMarie-Anais.Francois@morganstanley.comfirm...