Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary May 3-108018599

MMay4,202412:24AMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+44207425-9781May3StrategistMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-4703AprilUSjobsreportissoftall-around;Tsysrally,marketspull+1212761-2779forwardcuts;GoolsbeesaysAprilNFPscounterno-landingfears;MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++8523963-0303NOKoutperformswithNorgesBankrateguidance;CADlagsamidloweroil,stillweakPMIs;MXNretracesinitialgains;DXYDominicJKrummenacherat105.03(-0.3%);US10yat4.508%(-7.3bp).Strategist•Apriljobsreportshowslowerjobgains,higherunemploymentrate,Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.comandweaklaborincomeproxy.LabormarketsoftnessaugmentsthefirstcontractioninISMServicessinceDecember2022.MorganStanley&Co.LLC•StrongrallyinTreasuriesfollowsdatawhichshowslabormarketEliPCarterslack;marketpricingnowimpliesnearlytworatecutsthisyearafterPowellsaysunexpectedlabormarketweaknesscouldbringcuts.StrategistEli.Carter@morganstanley.com•ChicagoFedPresidentGoolsbeebelievesthemorejobsreportslikethis,the"moreconfidentwecanbethattheeconomyisnotLenoyDujonoverheating."US/CanadaEconomist•NOK(+1.1%)outperformsitsScandinavianpeer,SEK(+0.5%),Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.comfollowingguidancefromNorgesBankthatthe"policyratewilllikelybekeptattoday’slevelforsometimeahead."MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+•CADweakensalongsidethe...