Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary January 24-106129932

MJanuary24,202411:26PMGMTUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMorganStanley&Co.LLC+1212761-6076+44207425-9781January24MartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-4703JGBsell-offdeepens,focusonBoJnormalization;StrongUSStrategist+1212761-2779PMIsstartUSTsell-off;SolidUKPMIslowerimpliedBoEcuts;Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+44207425-1877USD/CNHendslittlechanged,despitePBoCRRRcut;BoC's+8136836-8428Macklemsayscutsarepremature;CLPgainsamidFinMinsales;MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++8523963-0303DXYat103.25(-0.4%);US10yat4.176%(+4.8bp).DominicJKrummenacher•JGBsell-offdeepensasmarketparticipantscontinuetopositionforasharperBoJnormalizationcycle,whilefocusinthelong-endturnstoStrategistthelooming40yJGBauction.Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com•Surprisingly-strongpreliminaryJanuaryS&PGlobalUSPMIspushesMorganStanley&Co.LLCUSTreasuriesintothereduntilalarge(2.0bp)tailinthe$61bn5yUSTauctioncatalyzesarenewedsell-offinUSduration.EliPCarter•SolidpreliminaryJanuaryS&PGlobalUKPMIsbear-flattensthegiltStrategistcurveasthemarket-impliedBoEBankRatepathincheshigher;ourEli.Carter@morganstanley.comeconomistsnolongerforecasta1Q24UKgrowthcontraction.LenoyDujon•USD/CNH(-0.1%)strugglestosustainaninitialmovelowerafterthePBoCannouncesasurprise50bpRRRcut,whilelocalequities(HangUS/CanadaEconomistSeng:+3.56%)rallymarkedly.Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com•Bo...