Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary January 5-105764224

MJanuary6,202412:28AMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+1212761-0407January5Strategist+1212761-4703Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779Contrastinglabormarketsignalsinduceintradaymarketswings;+44207425-1877DMdurationendsabumpyweekonalownote;GBPshowsZoeKStrauss+8523963-0303mildoutperformanceamidconstructionPMIrise;CNHbucksregionalweakness;BanRep'sBonillaguidestoJanuarycutandStrategistbeyond;DXYat102.44(+0.0%);US10yat4.046%(+4.7bp).Zoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com•LabormarketdataofferscontrastingsignalsafterDecemberEliPCarternonfarmpayrollsshowastill-tightlabormarketbuttheISMservicesemploymentindexplunges7.4pptintocontraction.StrategistEli.Carter@morganstanley.com•WideintradaytradingrangesdefineavolatilesessionforUSTswiththecurveinitiallysellingoffinaroughlyparallelmanner,beforebull-LenoyDujonsteepening,andeventuallytwist-steepening.US/CanadaEconomist•BundstracktheUSTintradayswingsbeforebear-flattening,with10yLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.comBundyields13bphigheroverthecourseoftheweek.MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+•GBP(+0.3%)showsmildoutperformanceafteralarger-than-expectedriseintheUKconstructionPMIandgiltunderperformance.Marie-AnaisCFrancois•CNH(+0.1%)isanoutlierfromAxJpeersassolvencyissuesfromaStrategistshadowbankweremetwithreportsofstatebanks'activi...