Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary February 1-106293313

MFebruary1,202411:58PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+44207425-9781February1StrategistMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-4703FurtherUSCREconcernpromptsUSTbull-flattener;Brentsinks+1212761-2779onreportsofpossibleceasefire;BoE'sBaileyconfirmsnomoreMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++44207425-1877upsidebiasonrates;SEKlagsafterRiksbanksoftenstone;+8136836-8428Europeanratestwistflatten;CLPlagsafterBCCh100bpcut;DominicJKrummenacher+8522239-7983DXYat103.07(-0.2%);US10yat3.880%(-3.2bp).Strategist•GlobalimpactofUSCREriskspromptsswiftflight-to-qualityUSTDominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.comrally,leadingthecurvetobull-flatten;5yUSTyieldsfallbelow3.78%intraday,thelowestlevelsinceJune2023.MorganStanley&Co.LLC•Brentcrudeoilfuturessink3.7%,below$79/bbl,aftermediareportEliPCartersuggestsIsraelagreeingtoaproposedceasefire.Strategist•Despitetwovotesforahike,theBoEmaintainsBankRateat5.25%Eli.Carter@morganstanley.com(C:5.25%)andGovernorBaileyconfirms"we'vetakenawaytheupsidebias"onrates.LenoyDujon•SEKlagsG10peersafterRiksbankholdsitspolicyrateat4.00%(C:US/CanadaEconomist4.00%),butthestatementnotesthepolicyratecan"probablybecutLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.comsoonerthanwasindicatedintheNovemberforecast."MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+•Europeandurationtwistflattensafte...