Morgan Stanley Fixed-EM Strategy Asia Macro Strategy Stay Long Carry-106848120

MMarch4,202412:58PMGMTMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+IdeaEMStrategyAsiaPacificMinDai+8522239-7983+8523963-0303AsiaMacroStrategy:StayLongStrategistCarryMin.Dai@morganstanley.comTherearegoodreasonstobuyUSDoverthemedium-to-longGekTengKhooterm,butnotnow.WeexpectUSDtotradesidewaysintheshortterm,providingcarryopportunitiesinAsiaFX.StrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.comEMFXcouldbethemajordriverforAsialocalmarkets:AsialocalmarketspreadoverUSTyieldistight,makingadurationrallylesslikelyunlessUSTyieldralliesMorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithfromhere.Hence,EMFXislikelytobethemajordriverinthenextfewmonths.companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofMedium-termfactorsinfavourofUSD:HigherimmigrationtotheUShaskepttheinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyjobmarketstrongerthanexpected.TheincreasinglaboursupplycouldalsoalleviateResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleywagepressure.BettergrowthandlowerinflationwouldallowtheFedtocutratesResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentbutonlygradually,aprobableGoldilocksscenarioforUSassets.decision.Meanwhile,USleadershipinAIandtheincreasinggeopoliticaltensionbetweentheForanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,USandChinacouldincreasethegapbetweenUSproductivityanditsglobalrefertotheDisclosureS...