Morgan Stanley Fixed-Economics, Banks and Payments Digital Euro Work In Progres...-105817005

MJanuary10,202412:01AMGMTFoundationEconomics,BanksandPaymentsEuropeMorganStanleyEuropeS.E.++4969-21662832DigitalEuro:WorkInProgressGabrielaSilova+44207425-5344+44207425-4620Thedigitaleurocouldbelaunchedin2027,andtheECBisEconomist+44207677-4807currentlyinthefirstpreparationphase–weexaminetheGabriela.Silova@morganstanley.compotentialimpactsformonetarypolicy,banks,andpaymentsAttractivecompanies.MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+KeyTakeawaysGiuliaAuroraMiotto,CFAWedonotexpectthedigitaleurotohaveamaterialimpactontheconductofEquityAnalystmonetarypolicy,butitcouldleadtoanenlargementoftheECBbalancesheet.Giulia.Aurora.Miotto@morganstanley.comOnthebanksside,wethinkthekeyfeaturetowatchisthemaximumamountofAlastairPNolanpersonalholdingsindigitaleuro,witha€3,000limitapparentlythefrontrunner.EquityAnalystWeestimatethatifeveryoneaged15orolderweretoconvert€3,000fromAlastair.Nolan@morganstanley.comdepositsintodigitaleuro,bankscouldlose7%oftheirdeposits.KerryShawDigitaleuroThereasoning:Theshareoftransactionsforwhichcashwasusedasameansofpaymentdeclinedfrom79%to59%between2016and2022intheEuroResearchAssociateArea.Atthesametime,cryptocurrencies/stablecoinsemergedtopresentariskofKerry.Shaw@morganstanley.combecominganewmeansofpaymentsorstoreofvalue,asdidpaymentprovidersthatoperateintheeuroareabutareheadquarteredoutsideoftheEuropea...