Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary January 26-106177352

MJanuary27,202412:37AMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+44207425-9781January26StrategistMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-4703MildUSTtwistflattenerensues,spendingcomesinstrong;+1212761-2779ECB'sVujcicurgespatienceonratecuts,EURretraceslosses;MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++44207425-1877USD/CNHremainsisolatedfromequityvol;JGBsrallyafterweak+8136836-8428TokyoCPI;CLPweakenssharplyafterFinMinpausesUSDsales;DominicJKrummenacher+8523963-0303DXYat103.47(-0.1%);US10yat4.137%(+1.9bp).Strategist•AmildUSTtwistflattenerpartiallyreversesthepriorsession'sbull-Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.comsteepeningafterslighterweakercorePCEof0.17%m/m(C:0.2%)pareswithstrongpersonalspending,withupwardrevisions.MorganStanley&Co.LLC•ECBGoverningCouncilMemberVujcicsays“weneedpatienceatEliPCarterthemomenttogetenoughdatatobeconfidentthatinflationisreallyfirmlysustainablyonthewaytoourmedium-termtarget.”StrategistEli.Carter@morganstanley.com•MoreexplicitpushbackagainstmarketpricingofratecutsfromECBpolicymakersprovidesaslightboosttoEUR(+0.1%).LenoyDujon•USD/CNH(+0.1%)islittlechangeddespitefurtherlocalequityUS/CanadaEconomistmarketvolatility(HangSeng:-1.6%).Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com•ThebellyoftheJGBcurveoutperformsafterTokyoCPI(ex-freshMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+...