Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary April 8-107461385

MApril8,202410:46PMGMTUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMorganStanley&Co.LLC+1212761-6076+1212761-0407April8MartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-4703+1212761-2779Sharpcurveflatteningextendswithfront-endTsylosses;USD/StrategistJPYhoversnear152;Carrytradescontinue,CHFistopG10Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+8136836-8428underperformer;Bundsbear-flatten;BSPstaysonholdbutraises2024inflationforecast;IBRratesunderperformpeers;ZoeKStrauss+8523963-0303DXYat104.14(-0.1%);US10yat4.420%(+1.8bp).Strategist•Sharpcurveflatteningextends;theTreasurycurvenowtwistZoe.Strauss@morganstanley.comflattenswithMarchUSCPIloomingmid-week;5s30sflattensbyover4bpd/dtobelow12bp.EliPCarter•USD/JPY(+0.1%)gravitatesuptowardthe152levelalongsideSTIRStrategistpricing,whichimpliesonly60bpofratecutsfromtheFedin2024.Eli.Carter@morganstanley.com•CHFisthemainunderperformerintheG10asmarketparticipantsLenoyDujoncontinuetoexpressappetiteforcarrytrades,aftertheSNBwasthefirstG10centralbanktocommenceitseasingcycle.US/CanadaEconomistLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com•Bundsbear-flattenasEuropeancoredurationunderperformssemi-coreandtheperiphery.MorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.+•BSPmaintainsitspolicyrateat6.50%(C:6.50%)butraisesitsrisk-KoichiSugisakiadjustedinflationforecastfor2024andcontinuestodescriberiskstotheinflationoutlookasleaningtowardstheupside.StrategistKoichi....