Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary April 30-107934460

MApril30,202410:38PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+1212761-0407April30Strategist+1212761-4703Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779Tsyssell-offafterECIacceleration;USDexhibitsbroadstrength+44207677-0337againstG10peers;Europeanratesbear-flattenwithbetterGDPZoeKStrauss+8136836-8431data;ECB'sVilleroycallscutsafterJune"pragmatic";CanadaGDP+8523963-0303issoft,USD/CADsurges;CLPleadsLatAmFXlosses;DXYatStrategist106.27(+0.7%);US10yat4.680%(+6.6bp).Zoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com•TreasuriesselloffaftertheEmploymentCostIndexcontinuestheEliPCarterstringofupsideinflationsurprisesin1Q24;focusturnstotheMayFOMCmeetingandtoneofFedChairPowell'spressconference.StrategistEli.Carter@morganstanley.com•USdollarexhibitsbroadstrengthagainstG10peersasmarket-impliedFedratecutsdwindletojust28bpbyDecember,aftertheLenoyDujonaccelerationinacloselywatchedmeasureofwageinflation.US/CanadaEconomist•Europeandurationbear-flattensafterbetter-than-expectedLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.compreliminary1Q24nationwideandEuroAreaGDPdata.MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+•ECBGoverningCouncilMemberVilleroysaysthelatestroundofinflationdatafeedintotheirconfidenceforaJunecut,butthepaceofLorenzoTestacutswillbe“pragmatic”andcontingentoninflation.Strategist•USD/CAD(+0.9%)surgesafterCanadianGDPsurpr...