Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary April 25-107822205

MApril25,202410:51PMGMTUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMorganStanley&Co.LLC+1212761-6076+44207425-9781April25MartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-47031Q24USCorePCEupsidesurprisepushesoutFedratecutStrategist+44207425-1877pricing,bear-flattenstheTsycurve;Europeanratesalsobear-Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.comflatten;USD/JPYtradestentativelybeforeBoJ,TokyoCPI;USD+8136836-8431weaknesssurprises;ECB'sNagelstressesratepathuncertainty;MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++8522239-7983DXYat105.57(-0.3%);US10yat4.704%(+6.2bp).DominicJKrummenacher•AnupsidesurpriseintheUSCorePriceIndexat3.7%q/qin1Q24(C:3.4%)resetsexpectations,assumingnoJanuaryorFebruaryrevisions,StrategistMarchCorePCEinflationmayhaverisen0.48%m/m.Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com•Treasuriesbear-flattenasSTIRmarketspushpricingofthefirstfullMorganStanley&Co.LLC25bpratecutoutuntilDecember2024andpricelessthan100bpoftotalcutsbyDecember2025;2yUSTyieldscloseat5.00%.EliPCarter•Europeandurationbear-flattensinsympathywiththemoveintheStrategistUS;Bonosunderperformamidstpoliticaluncertainty.Eli.Carter@morganstanley.com•USD/JPY(+0.2%)tradestentativelyabove155aheadoftheAprilBoJMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+meetingandreleaseofTokyoCPI;amediareportsuggeststheBoJissettoconsiderareductioninitsJGBpurchasesizes.Marie-AnaisCFrancois•Despitestronginflationdata,higherUSrealyiel...