Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary January 30-106231205

MJanuary30,202411:59PMGMTUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMorganStanley&Co.LLC+1212761-6076+44207425-9781January30MartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-4703USTstwistflatten,earlymonth-endactivitysupportslong-end;Strategist+1212761-2779Europeancurvesbear-flatten;BrentsettlesupafterSaudiMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+44207425-1877directive;USD/MYRfallsdespiteMalaysiapoliticaluncertainty;+8136836-8428ECB'sVujcicprefers25bpcuts;CLPweakensbeforeBCCh;DXYMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++8522239-7983at103.42(-0.2%);US10yat4.032%(-4.2bp).DominicJKrummenacher•USTstwistflattenafterunexpectedriseinJobOpeningsinchesthevacanciesperunemployedworkerratioto1.44(P:1.43).Long-endStrategiststrengthacceleratesintoNYclose,month-enddynamicsinfocus.Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com•Europeancurvesbear-flattenafterboth4Q23EuroAreaGDPandMorganStanley&Co.LLCpreliminaryJanuarySpanishCPIareaboveconsensusexpectations;10yBTP-Bundspreadwidens~3bp.EliPCarter•Brentcrudeoilfuturessettle0.6%higheraftertheSaudiStrategistgovernmentgivesastate-ownedoilcompanyadirectivetonolongerEli.Carter@morganstanley.comraiseproductioncapacity.LenoyDujon•USD/MYRfinishesdownslightly,lowerUSTyieldsovernightoutweighMalaysiapoliticaluncertainty.US/CanadaEconomistLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com•ECBGoverningCouncilMemberVujcicsays,“twenty-fivebasis-pointmovesareprefera...