AsiaPacificEquityResearch03January2024China/HKPropertyDevelopers'delivery+14%Y/Yin2023/PSLrevived/investorfeedbackonLinkREIT,WharfREIC&SHKPAlthoughthetop100developers’DecembersaleswereweakerthanexpectedChinaProperty(moreinourreport),inthepastfewdaysthereweretwomarginallypositiveKarlChanACdevelopments:(1)Majordevelopers’homedeliveryin2023endeduptobe+14%Y/Y,andevendistresseddeveloperssawa16%Y/Ygrowth,showingtheimpact(852)2800-8513ofrescuefundsonhomedeliveryisplayingout;and(2)therewasanuptickinthekarl.chan@jpmorgan.comPSLbalanceinDecember2023(Rmb350billion).WhiletheexactusageisnotyetBloombergJPMAKCHANclear,theadditionalfundingcouldpartiallygotoeither“ensuringhomedelivery”(保交房),whichhelpsstabilizehomebuyers’confidence,orurbanvillageJocelynGaorenovation(城中村改造),whichhelpssupportrealestateinvestment(orsalesifcashcompensationisinvolved).Thatsaid,withoutameaningfulpick-upinsales,(852)2800-8529webelievetheMainlandChinapropertysectormaycontinuetounderperform.jocelyn.gao@jpmorgan.comMeanwhile,wealsostaycautiousonHongKongpropertywithhomepricescontinuallydropping&nomeaningfulpick-upinoffice&retail.WecontinuetoVenusChoirecommendthreepairtradeideas:(1)longLinkREIT&shortWharfREIC(link)–moreininvestorfeedback;(2)longCKA&shortNWD(link);(3)long(852)2800-8599CRLand&shortVanke-H(link).venus.choi@jpmorgan.comJ.P.M...
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