Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary March 18-107109023

MMarch18,202410:29PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+1212761-0407March18Strategist+1212761-4703Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779USD/JPYtradeschoppybeforeBoJ;AUDkeepspacewithUSD+44207425-1877strengthbeforeRBA;USTsell-offstreakextendstosixsessions,ZoeKStrauss+8136836-8428curvebear-steepens;Bundsbear-steepen;BrentcrudeandEuropeannaturalgastradefirmly;MXNlagsontariffrhetoric;StrategistDXYat103.58(+0.1%);US10yat4.324%(+1.8bp).Zoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com•USD/JPY(+0.1%)tradesrangeboundastheBoJdecisionnears,EliPCarteranothermediareportsuggeststheendofnegativeinterestrates,endofyieldcurvecontrol,andendofETFpurchases.StrategistEli.Carter@morganstanley.com•AUDkeepspacewithUSDstrengthaheadoftheRBAmeeting,whereoureconomistsexpectthecashtargetratetoremainat4.35%(C:LenoyDujon4.35%)withoutashiftinmessaging.US/CanadaEconomist•LimitedcatalystsprovideforacontinuationofthebearishtrendinLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.comTreasuries,althoughthecurvenowgentlybear-steepensafterthepriorsession'ssharptwistflattening.MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+•Bundsbear-steepenaheadofbusyweekofsupply;the10yBTP-Marie-AnaisCFrancoisBundspreadtightensto122bp.Strategist•Commoditiescontinuetotradefirmly;BrentcrudeoilfuturesMarie-Anais.Francois@morganstanley.com(+1.8%)near$87/bbl,while...